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What is the probability of becoming a casualty in a major incident at a chemical processing plant?

The graph above shows the cumulative probability of there being less than or equal to a given number of casualties in a major incident at a chemical processing plant. The following should be noted:

• Casualty includes both dead and injured.
• The graph is based on 172 incidents in 81 refineries and 91 other plants.
• The data were collected over the eight months between 00.01.01 and 00.08.31 and most of the incidents have been reported here in the Incidents History.
• Transportation accidents, accidents in chemicals storage, pipeline accidents, accidents in oil and gas wells, and accidents to users of chemicals are not included.

From the data, it appears that oil refineries are safer than average. For example, while there is an 86% probability of no casualties in a major incident at a refinery, the corresponding probability for plants other than refineries is only 52%. Consequently, if you are going to have a major accident, an oil refinery seems the safest place to be - despite the bad press that refineries often receive.

The reason refineries are perceived as dangerous may be a consequence of their size: one refinery having five incidents in eight months gets more attention than five widely scattered small plants each having one incident. Indeed, we would estimate that one medium sized refinery is equivalent to about 20 typical small plants.

This is not to condone refinery accidents - there are certainly far too many of them - but the statistics do give a more realistic picture of their relative safety.